Serbia and China have a long history of developing relations, highlighted by a rare visit from the Chinese president at the beginning of May. This visit was part of a series in which the president of the East Asian country also traveled to France, meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, and to Hungary, where he was received by Viktor Orbán. The visit paved the way for the anticipated launch of the mutual trade agreement between Belgrade and Beijing, which officially came into effect at the beginning of July.
History of relations
To begin with, it is important to provide some background on the history of the relationship, as this offers crucial context for understanding the present. Beijing and Belgrade have been actively cooperating for over a decade. Areas of cooperation encompass not only infrastructure projects but also political, geopolitical, and military endeavors. From a geopolitical perspective, China does not recognize Kosovo, and Serbia adheres to a One-China policy. Both nations mutually support each other in their respective territorial disputes and sovereignty concerns.
Chinese influence in Serbia has been a subject of media and research attention for several years. China’s primary tools for influencing Serbia include economic investments and cultural and student exchange programs, often criticized as propaganda tools like the Confucius Institute. Additionally, China’s stance on the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia and its non-recognition of Kosovo have shaped its relationship with Serbia. Some local media and radio stations amplify Chinese narratives. Finally, the mask and vaccine diplomacy during the COVID-19 pandemic significantly enhanced China’s soft power in the country.
A visa-free regime for short stays has been in operation since 2017. The number of tourists coming to Serbia from China skyrocketed, but the pandemic brought the number down to almost zero. In 2023, however, reciprocal tourism between the two countries began to re-emerge in larger numbers. This movement of citizens, together with the rest of the factors, is an important contribution to the building of better mutual relations and perception of China in Serbian society.
The Serbian military’s enhancement through the acquisition of various UAVs and the FK-3 surface-to-air missile air defense system could also significantly influence certain segments of Serbian society. The recent visit of the Chinese President marks the culmination of a prolonged period of activities that have yielded substantial benefits for China in terms of soft power perception in Serbia.
Visit in May 2024
At the beginning of May, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Serbia, where he met with President Aleksandar Vučić in Belgrade. The visit lasted two days. Xi Jinping was also welcomed by Prime Minister Miloš Vučević, Speaker of the National Assembly Ana Brnabić, Minister of Foreign Affairs Marko Đurić, and former President of Serbia Tomislav Nikolić, who currently serves as the President of the National Council for Coordination of Cooperation with the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China. As a gesture of importance, his plane was escorted into Serbian airspace by the country’s MiG-29 fighters. The arrival was marked by several ceremonies, including a joint dinner for the presidential couples, negotiations, and a press conference.
According to published reports, the delegations signed a total of 28 new documents and treaties of various kinds. Some of these were also mentioned in press releases, such as the Extradition Agreement, the Agreement on Judicial Assistance in Civil and Commercial Matters, the Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in the Field of Green and Sustainable Development, and the Programme of Cooperation in the Field of Culture. Overall, Serbia appears to have signed new documents with China in nearly every conceivable field.
In addition to the signed documents, the statements made at the joint press conference are also significant. The two countries reiterated their support for each other on the issues of Kosovo and Taiwan, expressed satisfaction with current cooperation and enthusiasm for future collaboration, and announced plans to deepen their relationship.
According to an expert interviewed by RFERL, China has become Serbia’s most important eastern partner due to Russia’s actions, which have partially curtailed Belgrade’s rapprochement with Moscow. Another expert noted that the visit coincided with the anniversary of the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, but this was not seen as deliberate, although it is considered symbolically significant.
In addition to all the documents signed, a joint declaration on building a Sino-Serbian community with a shared future in the new era was also signed, the first time this kind of document had been signed by a European country.
The Free Trade Agreement entered into force on the 1st July
In October 2023, Serbia signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with China during a visit by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. The agreement entered into force on July 1, 2024, following implementation by both countries. The FTA covers a wide range of products and aims to eliminate tariffs on approximately 20,000 items over a 15-year period. Initially, tariffs will be removed from about 60% of these products, with the remaining 40% phased out by 2039. However, certain agricultural and industrial goods will remain subject to tariffs. To benefit from the agreement, companies must prove that over 50% of a product’s value is domestically generated.
With this visit, the signed documents, and the FTA, China has significantly shifted its influence over Serbia and, by extension, the entire region. Belgrade clearly facilitates Beijing’s gradual penetration of Europe, though it faces numerous challenges hindering substantial progress. It is premature to claim that China has captured Serbia, considering the Serbian government’s multidirectional foreign policy. Belgrade has demonstrated its ability to maneuver in various directions based on circumstances. Consequently, while China has secured a soft power victory, the geopolitical struggle for Serbia and the Western Balkans is far from over.
Author: Richard Straka
