Latin America experienced a tumultuous 2024, marked by political transitions and dramatic changes amid ongoing challenges. The region witnessed a series of key elections, radical shifts in governance, and ambitious reform attempts, paralleled by protests and growing polarization all over the region. What were the most crucial developments in 2024 in the major states of Latin America and what can be expected in 2025?
ARGENTINA: Undergoing Shock Therapy
In the eyes of Argentina, 2024 would be best described as „shock therapy“. During the first year of the mandate of the newly elected president, the anarcho-capitalist economist Javier Milei, the country experienced a truly unprecedented change. Argentina has long been steeped in political dysfunction and economic crisis and has defaulted on external debt nine times since gaining independence in 1816. With an iconic chainsaw in his hands, symbolizing his anti-public spending campaign, Milei has stuck to his promises, introducing radical austerity and deregulation measures. The government spending cuts produced the desired results, including a drop in monthly inflation from 25.5% (December 2023) to 2.7% (October 2024), representing the 3-year minimum. However, the country’s fiscal consolidation and first budget surplus in a decade did not go without consequences for the Argentinian public.
During the first six months of Milei’s term, the poverty rate has grown from 42% to 53%, reaching the worst levels in two decades. The situation is challenging for the once-strong middle class, which is slipping into poverty. However, poorer people are no less affected, confirmed by the rise of extreme poverty, reaching 18.1% during the first six months of the new government (from 11.9% in the last half of 2023). At least 136,000 jobs have been lost since the controversial president took office, with potential larger losses in the informal sector. Nevertheless, the country’s main economic indicators have improved. Data for July and August show growth, despite a slight decline in September. Since April, salaries have outpaced inflation, and in October, consumer prices rose by 2.7% over the previous month, compared to 25.5% in December. This is reflected in Milei’s growing popularity with an approval rate of nearly 47% in November 2024, despite the side effects of austerity measures. In 2025, we can expect that the Argentine economy will continue to show signs of life and slowly grow. However, the duration of this positive trend and the price of the sacrifices are yet to be seen.
BOLIVIA: Growing Fragmentation
Bolivia experienced a turbulent year with tensions escalating between former President Evo Morales and current President Luis Arce. However, the biggest uproar of the year was caused by army general Juan José Zúñiga, who unsuccessfully attempted a coup d’état in June 2024. The country faces deep polarization, distrust in institutions, and a permanent political and economic crisis. Arce’s interventionist policies led to severe shortages and a projected growth rate of only 1.7%, the 2nd worst in South America. Nevertheless, there are claims that the coup (lasting only five hours) was staged and served to distract attention from the escalating economic and energy problems, allowing Arce’s government to portray itself as a victim while justifying unpopular measures. In addition to the tumultuous political scenario, Bolivia witnessed the worst environmental disasters in history, with unprecedented wildfires and a severe drought, massively affecting agricultural production. The government’s inability to cope with the issue underlined its weakness and disconnection from the population’s needs.
In 2025, Bolivia awaits another presidential election, most probably between the two opposing figures from the Movement to Socialism (MAS) party, Acre and Morales. However, Morales is facing an arrest warrant for human trafficking and rape, which complicates his re-election bid, despite the support of his substantial electorate. Bolivia’s situation continues deteriorating under an increasingly authoritarian regime, leaving the country’s future uncertain. Seeking solutions in the past may not be the guarantee of a better future.
BRAZIL: Shifting Power Landscape
For the largest country on the continent, 2024 was a remarkable year at home, just like abroad. Brazil hosted municipal elections, marked by historically highest abstention rates (29.26% in the 2nd round), the rise but fragmentation of right-wing forces, and the decline of traditional parties. The Liberal Party (PL), led by former President Jair Bolsonaro, and the Social Democratic Party (PSD), won the most prominent seats in large cities including São Paulo. Centrist and right-wing parties secured control of 62% of Brazilian cities, which marks a change from the left-leaning dominance in earlier elections. The rise of the right is evident even in traditionally left-leaning regions, such as the Northeast. The recent success of right-wing parties in Brazil is particularly relevant as it opens the door for a potential new leader to become an alternative to Jair Bolsonaro in the 2026 presidential election. In 2023, the Brazilian Supreme Court rendered the former far-right president ineligible for seeking re-election until 2030, accusing him of power abuse and unfounded questioning of the country’s electronic voting system.
These developments especially worry the current leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from the Workers‘ Party (PT). For Lula’s government, 2024 was a progressive year, during which Brazil presided over the G20, culminating with the summit in Rio de Janeiro. Following the motto “’Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet” the Brazilian government stressed the interests of the Global South. This was reflected in setting sustainable development, global governance reform, and fighting against hunger, poverty, and inequality as the G20 priorities. A similar vein was followed in Lula’s domestic political strategy, focusing on advancing employment, health, housing, infrastructure, and environmental policies. Despite achieving the historically lowest unemployment rate of 6.1% (November 2024) and significantly reducing poverty during the first two years of Lula’s third presidential term, these accomplishments were not reflected in the latest municipal elections. This result is closely related to Lula’s political future, which, in turn, is directly linked to the destiny of the Workers‘ Party. In 2025, Brazil will hold the BRICS presidency and the 30th UN Climate Change Conference in Belém, Pará. However, it will also be an important election year on the domestic scene, which could see the emergence of both a substitute for Jair Bolsonaro and a successor to the now 79-year-old Lula.
CHILE: Changing Priorities
In 2024, the political scene in the “country of poets” was dominated by the aftermath of the unsuccessful constitutional reform process and targeting pressing social issues. Chile’s constitutional problem stems from its 1980 Constitution, which was adopted during Augusto Pinochet’s military dictatorship. Though amended over 70 times, it remains criticized for its lack of legitimacy due to its dictatorial origin. The Chilean voters rejected the proposed new draft for the second time in two years, even though most people would welcome the constitutional change. The primary reasons for the denial were its excessively left-leaning nature and the proposal of an extensive list of rights unworkable in practice. Following the rejection, President Gabriel Boric dismissed the third attempt to amend the Constitution and declared the constitutional process over.
These developments shifted the government’s focus to social issues that have long troubled the country, specifically social protection and the pension system. In collaboration with the World Bank, Chile has implemented a people-centric social protection model, making the delivery of social services more efficient and targeting social inequality. Efforts have also been made regarding the pension system reform, which has been the subject of political debate for more than a decade. However, the persisting polarization makes approval of structural reforms difficult, contributing to increasing uncertainty. This is also reflected in a growing number of homicides and sophisticated organized crime, which were rather exceptional in a country known for its safety. In 2025, Chile will face the challenge of overcoming political polarization, which is necessary to implement the long-awaited systemic reforms.
Though the political climate of the countries and the problems they face differ, there is one factor that strongly influences developments in each of them. Social polarization, as in Europe or the United States, is a crucial element that significantly affects the quality of life, perceptions of security, and prospects for future progress across the continent. 2025 will also be a year of building bridges between divided societies, a prerequisite for finding solutions to structural problems.
Author: Adela Sadloňová
Picture source: Canva